The Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI), one of the nation’s leading resource for market research concerning the home and building products industry, has forecasted consumer spending on home improvement products will steady after two years of extreme demand following the COVID-19 pandemic. Rising inflation, reduced real household income and completed projects led HIRI to forecast that overall consumer market sales will increase by 2.8% in 2023 to $382.5 billion. This research was conducted in partnership with IHS Markit and released to HIRI members at the end of Q1 in the biannual Home Improvement Products Market Forecast.  

Looking at growth over the last 10 years, the 2.8% increase reflects a healthy market. In 2020 and 2021 alone, consumer spending on home improvement soared to 15% and 13.3%, respectively, as homeowners invested time and money into their spaces that served as homes, offices, schools, gyms and more. 

“The extreme increase in demand for home improvement products that we witnessed because of the pandemic was bound to calm sooner or later,” said HIRI Research Director Matthew Craig. “While consumer spending is easing slightly on home improvement products, it is important to emphasize that any future boost is compounded on previous unprecedented growth. The market is still performing very well.”

HIRI cites differing economic circumstances and homeowner needs as reasons for the shift in consumer demand. This year, households are seeing real income decline as inflation climbs and stimulus payments recede. The Forecast predicts U.S. real disposable income to decline by 3.5% in 2022 after climbing 2.2% in 2021. 

For those left unaffected, disposable funds are expected to be directed toward hobbies or other major purchases, as many report pandemic-era projects being brought to completion. However, contractor-led projects are expected to see an uptick as homeowners become comfortable allowing professional help into their living spaces again.

In the short term, the Forecast predicts the total building products market to grow by 4.2% in 2022, with the consumer market growing by 2.6% and the professional market growing by 7.9%. Between 2024 and 2026, the consumer market is expected to average about 3.2% growth, and the professional market to average around 4.8% growth for the same period. This projection highlights a significant rise in contractor activity as well as an overall continued interest in home improvement in the coming years.

The Forecast further breaks down this growth by segmented merchandise line.

Top-growing merchandise lines for consumers

Compound annual growth rate for the consumer market between 2022 and 2026:

• Lawn and garden equipment and supplies: 6.0%
• Dimensional lumber and boards: 5.1%
• Doors and molding: 5.0%
• Electrical supplies: 4.8%
• Nursery stock and soil treatments: 4.8%
• Plywood and related products: 4.6%
• Siding and exterior trim: 4.2%

Top-growing merchandise lines for professionals

Compound annual growth rate for the professional market between 2022 and 2026:

• Dimensional lumber and boards: 7.6%
• Doors and molding: 7.5%
• Plywood and related products: 7.2%
• Siding and exterior trim: 6.4%
• Electrical supplies: 6.3%
• Lawn and garden equipment and supplies: 6.0%
• Paint sundries and other supplies: 5.8%

Since 1992, the Home Improvement Products Market Forecast has provided the home improvement industry’s only product-focused size of market study with five-year forecasts for the consumer and professional markets. Product category–level detail is provided for the consumer market and, since 2018, for the professional market. Geographic detail is also provided for the nine census divisions with annual estimates at the state level. The Forecast is released in the spring (Q2) and fall (Q3) exclusively to HIRI members.

HIRI members receive unlimited access to Home Improvement Products Market Forecasts and $1 million worth of additional industry research. For industry professionals, publishers, marketing executives and more, HIRI is the top source of data to help guide business decisions.