This article probably isn’t what you think it is. I’m not going to discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) is going to make skilled labor easier or safer, how it’ll revolutionize the way technicians work, or how it’ll allow tech support to join you on a roof or in a basement through augmented reality.

AI has the potential to increase worker productivity and alleviate some of the labor deficit; that’s not in question. 

I want to explore the possibility that AI is poised to force more workers into the skilled trades, effectively increasing the number of people entering our industry. It’s because other career paths are destined to be replaced by AI, and people will seek careers that AI isn’t yet capable of replacing. 

I think AI has the potential to save the skilled trades by replacing “more attractive” career paths, effectively increasing the number of workers available for the trades to recruit. 

Shifting Employment Landscape

If you make your living on a keyboard, AI is most likely coming for your job. It’s anyone’s guess when it will happen, but it’s almost inevitable. 

Alternatively, if your career requires you to travel from place to place, climb stairs, turn wrenches, diagnose equipment problems via sensory cues and your own hard-earned experience, communicate face-to-face with customers, and solve problems with creative and critical thinking, I believe your job will be safe at least for the remainder of your career.

We all know there’s a skilled labor shortage. In January, Associated Builders and Contractors reported that the construction industry is projected to need more than 500,000 additional workers annually to meet demand (https://bit.ly/3CrFAvS). The situation in the automotive sector is slightly less dismal, requiring about 100,000 new skilled technicians each year (https://on.mktw.net/4enSYOF). 

The Home Builders Institute’s Spring 2021 Construction Labor Market Report cited a 55 percent shortage of plumbers available for work training (https://bit.ly/3UL4LQc). That statistic is a bit dated, but I haven’t witnessed any improvement over the past few years, have you?

Meanwhile, during the first half of 2024, 50,000 tech workers lost their jobs, per Business Insider (though I first saw this stat in a post by @unusual_whales). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics lists the following jobs as some of the fastest declining occupations: typists, telephone operators, data entry keyers, legal and executive secretaries and admin assistants, telemarketers and payroll clerks.

On one hand, we have the skilled labor sector desperately in need of workers. On the other hand, we have a wide variety of industries cutting their workforce. That sounds like symbiosis.

There’s another element to this: Equipment is getting more technical and has been since the early 1990s when control boards started to appear. Only now, the technology curve’s trajectory is beginning to look more exponential. 

For example, my November column included information on a job we’re soon completing, with boilers and heat pumps being used in an all-hydronic, hybrid system. This solution works well, but installing and maintaining it requires highly trained technicians.

As equipment becomes more complex, technician training needs to be more specialized, especially on the commercial side of the business. Some manufacturers are great at providing training opportunities. Others, not so much. However, that’s a rant for another day.

Tomorrow’s Techs and Tools

I digress. We haven’t even begun to imagine all the ways that AI will be incorporated into design, commissioning and troubleshooting. Will it alleviate some of the pain that comes from a lack of training? Potentially. 

Apprentices today will become the techs of tomorrow, and they will certainly be equipped with AI-driven tools and platforms that I’ll never use. However, that takes us into territory I said I wouldn’t cover in this column. 

The essence of this conversation is that AI is here, and it’s not slowing down. The manufacturers, reps, wholesalers, contractors and technicians who are optimistic about it and ready to capitalize on its advantages while adapting to the headwinds it presents are likely to benefit greatly. 

Young people generally gravitate toward new technology largely because it’s inherent to them. They grew up with it, so it doesn’t feel as “new” to them as it does to people my age. They’ll familiarize themselves with new AI-driven platforms and tools much more rapidly than I would, but there’s also an incentive to do so. 

The cost of a college education has soared in recent years, while the salary provided by jobs requiring a degree has often been stagnant. Meanwhile, the trades have, in most cases, become more lucrative, and young people enrolled in an apprenticeship program can be making money while learning on the job. Our occupation is becoming increasingly attractive, and the influence of AI and high-tech equipment and tools is a force multiplier for young people. 

Gen Z, aided by technology, may be the generation that reverses the skilled trade workforce trend we’ve witnessed since the middle of the last century. 

Ready or Not, AI is Coming 

If you’ve read this far and are still not convinced AI will impact our industry, here are some things to consider.

Former chief business officer of X (formerly Twitter) said that AI will become one billion times smarter by 2037 and artificial general intelligence (AGI) will be here by 2027.

What’s the difference between AI and AGI, you ask? Let’s ask ChatGPT, a well-known AI-driven chatbot that can answer questions, compose essays, write code, and more. Here’s what it had to say:

“Artificial Intelligence refers to systems designed to perform specific tasks by mimicking human intelligence, such as language translation, image recognition or playing games. AI operates within a limited domain and relies on pre-defined algorithms and data patterns. Artificial General Intelligence, on the other hand, is a theoretical concept describing machines with the ability to understand, learn and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks, similar to human cognitive abilities. 

“AGI would possess self-awareness, reasoning and adaptability, enabling it to solve problems in any domain without human intervention. Currently, AGI remains a goal for future technological development, while AI is widely used today.”

So, will AI and AGI impact our trade? Many of you are old enough to remember your job before the Internet became available to the masses. AI and AGI will affect our business at least as much as the Internet. It will be prolific, working its way into everything we do.

The technicians and companies adapting to AI will flourish. Those who refuse to do so will cease to exist because they won’t be able to compete. I’m excited to see the young people no longer interested in college join the trades and become the force that moves us forward. l 

Tom Soukup is the principal of Patriot Water Works Co., with more than 20 years as a hydronic designer and installer. He specializes in high-efficiency and green technology and brings his expertise to custom hydronics work, pool heating and agricultural projects. Reach Tom at twsoukup@patriotwaterworks.com.